Cược chấp Châu Á chơi thế nào?

cuoc chap Chau A

Cược chấp châu Á là loại cược thể thao công bằng nhất với biên lợi nhuận thấp nhất chỉ khoảng 12.7%. Hình thức cược chấp là hình thức phổ biến nhất ở các nhà cái bóng đá ở Châu Á. Người chơi đã nắm rõ cách chơi cược chấp này chưa? Để giúp người chơi có thêm kinh nghiệm cá độ bóng đá thì bài này sẽ giới thiệu cụ thể cho người chơi hiểu hơn thể loại cược chấp Châu Á này.

cuoc chap Chau A

Chấp 0 bàn thắng (không có lựa chọn hòa)

  – Cược chấp 0 tương tự như cược thẳng. Trong cược thẳng người chơi đặt cược cho đội mà họ nghĩ sẽ thắng trận. Nếu kết quả hòa, tiền cược được trả về, do đó mà có thuật ngữ không có lựa chọn hòa. Bởi vì kết quả hòa có nghĩa là toàn bộ tiền cược được hoàn trả, nên xác suất hòa được loại bỏ khỏi bảng tỉ lệcá cược.

  – Có thể dùng tỉ lệ cá cược công bằng (dạng thập phân) để tính tỉ lệ cá cược cho lựa chọn Đội nhà thắng, Hòa và Đội khách thắng. Công thức:

    ĐN = (1 – p0) / p1; ĐK = (1-p0) / p2

  – Trong đó: ĐN là đội nhà, ĐK là đội khách, p1 là xác suất đội nhà thắng, p0 là xác suất hòa và p2 là xác suất đội khách thắng.

  – VD: Nếu xác suất 1×2 của một trận bóng đá là 45% (0.45), 30% (0.30) và 25% (0.25), cược thắng sẽ là:

    ĐN = (1-0.3) / 0.45 = 1.56; ĐK = (1-0.3) / 0.25 = 2.80

  – Ở trên là tỉ lệ theo dạng cược thập phân. Để có tỉ lệ cược Hong Kong ta chỉ cần trừ 1. Do đó, tỉ lệ cá cược cho đội nhà là 0.56 và đội khách là 1.8  Lưu ý là rằng tỉ lệ này chưa tính đến biên lợi nhuận của nhà cái.

Chấp 1/2 bàn thắng

 – Công thức tính tỉ lệ cá cược châu Á chấp nửa bàn thắng tương tự như cược chấp không bàn thắng, nhưng khác ở chỗ không có việc hoàn trả lại tiền cược hòa đối. Với cược chấp nửa bàn, sẽ luôn có một bên thắng cược mặc dù kết quả thi đấu là hòa.

    ĐN = 1 / p1; ĐK = 1 / (1-p1)

  – Lấy lại ví dụ có cùng xác suất là (45 – 30 – 25), ta có:

    ĐN = 1 / 0.45 = 2.22; ĐK = (1 / (1 – 0.45) = 1.82

Chấp 1/4 bàn thắng

 – Cược chấp 1/4 (0/ 0.5) thực chất là hai cược chấp được ghép lại. Để tính tỉ lệ đội khách chấp 1/4 bàn thắng, ta dùng công thức:

    ĐN = (1 – p0/2) / p1; ĐK = (1 – p0/2) / (p2 + p0/2)

  – Với xác suất (45 – 30 – 25) ta sẽ có các tỉ lệ cá cược:

    ĐN = (1 – 0.30 /2) / 0.45 = 1.89; ĐK = (1 – 0.30 /2) / (0.25 + 0.30/2) = 2.13

Các dạng đổi cược chấp khác

  – Đối với các loại cá cược chấp khác ngoại trừ chấp 0, 0.25 và 0.5 thì các tính cược chấp Châu Á khá giống với các ví dụ trên, chỉ khác là phải biết được xác suất của khả năng đội chấp thắng đúng 1 , 2 hoặc 3 bàn thắng…, tùy vào loại việc ta đang tính cược chấp nào.

Chấp 1 bàn thắng

  – Trong cược chấp 1 bàn thắng, ta cần biết được xác suất của đội thắng hơn đúng 1 bàn. Công thức tính tỉ lệ cá cược trong cược chấp 1 bàn thắng khi biết xác suất:

    ĐN = (1 – ph1) / (p1 – ph1); ĐK = (1 – ph1) / (1 – p1)

  – Trong đó, p1, p0 và p2 tương tự như trong các ví dụ trên, ph1 là xác suất đội nhà thắng nhiều hơn 1 bàn.

  – Ví dụ, nếu ph1 = 0.20, các giá trị còn lại như các ví dụ trên, chúng ta có các tỉ lệ sau:

    ĐN = (1 – 0.20) / (0.45 – 0.20) = 3.20; ĐK = (1 – 0.20)/ (1 – 0.45) = 1.45

Cược chấp 3/4 bàn thắng

  – Công thức tính (Đội nhà chấp) như sau:

    ĐN = (1 – ph1 / 2) / (p1 – ph1/2); ĐK = (1 – ph1 / 2) / (1 – p1)

  – Lấy ví dụ với cùng các trị số như trên:

    ĐN = (1 – 0.20 / 2) / (0.45 – 0.20 / 2) = 2.57; ĐK = (1 – 0.20 / 2) / (1 – 0.45) = 1.64

Cược trên dưới

  – Cách tính tỉ lệ cá cược Trên / Dưới tương tự như cược chấp Châu Á. Về cơ bản, tỉ lệ cá cược chấp “Trên / Dưới” được tính dựa vào tỉ lệ xác suất tổng số bàn thắng là “Trên hoặc Dưới”, sau đó đổi các tỉ lệ phần trăm thành tỉ lệ cá cược.

  – Xác suất của một sự kiện được tính bằng cách cộng tỉ lệ xác suất của các kết quả có thể xảy ra, sau đó chia tổng xác suất của tất cả các kết quả.

  – VD xác suất trận đấu bóng đá có từ 3 bàn thắng trở lên được tính như sau:

    P = (p3 + p4A) / (p0 + p1 + p2 + p3 + p4A)

  – Khi có được xác suất cần tìm, tỉ lệ cá cược sẽ được tính bằng công thức chuyển đổi sau:

    Tỉ lệ cá cược = (1- P) / P (P = xác suất của sự kiện)

Tính tỉ lệ cá cược đối với cược Trên / Dưới chấp lẻ 0.5

  – Để tính tỉ lệ cá cược đối với cược chấp Trên / Dưới lẻ 0.5 , VD Trên / Dưới 2.5, chỉ cần cộng p3 và p4A lại để có xác suất của 2.5 bàn thắng.

  – Do chúng ta cần sử dụng hệ số 2.5 làm tỉ lệ chấp “Trên/Dưới”, xác suất để có tỉ số trên 2.5 là:

    = (25% + 15%) / (15% + 20% + 25% + 25% + 15%) = 40% / 100% = 0.4

  – Sau đó tỉ lệ cá cược sẽ được tính bằng công thức:

  – Xác suất Trên = 0.4 (40%)

    Tỉ lệ cá cược = 1 / [0.4 / (1 – 0.4) = 1.5

Tính tỉ lệ cá cược đối với cược Trên / Dưới chấp số nguyên

  – Xác suất để trận có trên 2 bàn thắng được tính như sau:

    P = (p3 + p4A) / (p0 + p1 + p3 + p4A)

  – Lưu ý: p2 đã được loại bỏ khỏi công thức

  – VD: Hệ số chấp Trên / Dưới là 2. Xác suất của khả năng có từ 2 bàn hoặc hơn được tính như sau, với các thông số khác tương tự như VD trước:

    P = (25% + 15%) / (15% + 20% + 25% + 15%) = 40% / 75% = 0.53

    Tỉ lệ cá cược là = 1 / [0.53 / (1 – 0.53)] = 0.89

Tính tỉ lệ cá cược với cược chấp Trên / Dưới chia đôi

  – Để tính tỉ lệ cá cược đối với cược chấp Trên/ Dưới chia đôi, xác suất của khả năng tổng số bàn thắng được ghi có chứa giá trị chi đôi sẽ được chia cho 2 khi tính xác suất của sự kiện:

  – Xác suất để có kết quả trận đấu hơn 2/2.5 bàn thắng được tính như sau:

    P = (p3 + p4A) / (p0 + p1 + (p2/2) + p3 + p4A)

  – VD: hệ số chấp Trên / Dưới là 2/2.5 .Xác suất để trận đấu có trên 2/2.5 bàn thắng được tính như sau, với các thông số khác tương tự như VD trước:

  – P = (25% + 15%) / (15% + 20% + (25%/2) + 25% + 15%) = 40% / 87.5% = 0.46

    Tỉ lệ cược là = 1 / [0.46 / (1 – 0.46)] = 1.17

Cược chấp khác

– Các công thức sau biểu diễn cách tính các cược chấp khác, trong đó đội nhà là đội chấp. ph2 là xác suất của đội chấp ghi được nhiều hơn đúng 2 bàn thắng so với đối phương.

ĐN (0: 1.25) = (1 – ph1 / 2) / (p1 – ph1); ĐK (0: 1.25) = (1 – ph1 / 2) / (1 – p1 + ph1 / 2)

ĐN (0: 1.5) = 1 / (p1 – ph1); ĐK (0: 1.5) = 1 / (1 – p1 + ph1)

ĐN (0: 1.75) = (1 – ph2 / 2) / (p1 – ph1 – ph2 / 2); ĐK (0: .75) = (1 – ph2 / 2) / (1 – p1 + ph1)

ĐN (0: 2) = (1 – ph2) / (p1 – ph1 – ph2); ĐK (0: 2) = (1 – ph2) / (1 – p1 + ph1)

Các tỉ lệ cá cược chấp khác:

  – Các tỉ lệ cá cược chấp khác được tính tương tự như cược chấp “Trên / Dưới”, chỉ cần biết được xác suất của kết quả cần tính.

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