Kinh nghiệm ủng hộ kèo dưới trong cá độ bóng đá

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Theo chuyên gia cá cược Sean Smith của tờ báo điện tử nổi tiếng Soccernet thì “cá chấp” hay cá kiểu châu Á (handicap) là một trong những hình thức cá độ bóng đá phát triển mạnh nhất trên internet hiện nay.

ca co bong da

Cá đơn

Hình thức này cũng giống như danh bai truc tuyen lôi kéo được giới hâm mộ tham gia dự đoán bởi nó loại bỏ được sự tẻ nhạt trong hình thức “cá đơn” (chọn 1 trong 3 cửa) kiểu châu Âu. Trong hình thức cá chấp, đội được cho là mạnh hơn và đội bị cho là yếu hơn trở nên cân bằng, bởi đội mạnh đã phải “chấp” (nửa trái, một trái, trái rưỡi…). Sean Smith khuyến cáo: luôn chọn đội yếu (hay “kèo dưới”) trong hình thức cá chấp.

Đó là vấn đề kinh nghiệm. Nếu không tìm được nguyên nhân thuyết phục, bạn cứ mạnh dạn tin rằng chuỗi thất bại vừa qua của đội ấy là sự trùng hợp ngẫu nhiên. Như chúng tôi đã nêu ở những phần trước: khi một đồng xu lật ngửa 10 lần liên tiếp thì ở lần thứ 11, xác suất úp/ngửa ngẫu nhiên vẫn chỉ là 5/5, không thể cao hơn mà cũng chẳng thể thấp hơn. Chúng ta hãy tìm xem “cơ sở khoa học” của việc ủng hộ “kéo dưới” là như thế nào.

>> Trang tips bóng đá miễn phí cho người chơi cá đô!

Bóng đá luôn chứa đựng yếu tố bất ngờ

Lý do? Đôi bên thật ra đã coi như cân bằng sau khi xác định tỷ lệ “chấp”, nghĩa là người chọn đội yếu có xác suất thành công 50% với một tỷ số “bình thường”. Mà nếu tỷ số “bình thường” luôn xuất hiện thì bóng đá đã không được xem là môn thể thao số 1 hành tinh. Bóng đá luôn chứa đựng yếu tố bất ngờ, đồng nghĩa với chiến thắng cho “kèo dưới”. Tóm lại, Smith đã ở cả 2 bên “chiến tuyến” trước khi trở thành chuyên gia đứng ở vị trí trung lập! Có thể bắt đầu từ câu nói bất hủ của cựu HLV đội Anh Graham Taylor: “Khi bạn liên tục chiến thắng thì sự thật là bạn không mạnh như mình hy vọng. Khi bạn liên tục thất bại thì sự thật là bạn không yếu như mình âu lo”. Một câu bình luận pha chút tự thú thật tuyệt vời!” trích từ Happy8.

Tất nhiên, trước tiên phải xem xét khía cạnh chuyện môn. Một đội có thể liên tục thất bại vì khủng hoảng lực lượng, nội bộ lục đục, suy sụp tinh thần, HLV kém về đấu pháp… Nói cách khác, anh ta thấy rõ đám đông đang sai lầm trong việc đánh giá một đội cụ thể nào đó, một đội “không mạnh như chính đội ấy hy vọng, khi liên tục chiến thắng”, như lời Graham Taylor.

Trong suốt mùa bóng, một đội giữa bảng xếp hạng thường có giai đoạn không thua hoặc không thắng trong một chuỗi trận nhất định. Về bản chất thì người thành công trong trò cá cược không nhất thiết là người am tường chuyên môn, mà đấy là người thấy rõ tỷ lệ cược nào không hợp lý về mặt chuyên môn. Cuối các chuỗi trận ấy chính là lúc để bạn chiến thắng sai lầm của tỷ lệ cược. Người ta thống kê toàn bộ kết quả 4 giải chuyên nghiệp của bóng đá Anh trong 10 năm qua và thấy rằng hơn 50% các đội vừa thắng 6 trận liên tiếp sẽ thua ở trận thứ 7; hơn 50% các đội vừa thua 6 trận liên tiếp sẽ thắng ở trận thứ 7.

Ít nhất 1 trận thắng trong 7 trận liên tiếp

Trở lại với chuỗi trận ngẫu nhiên trong bóng đá: một đội vừa ngẫu nhiên thua liền 6 trận thì ở trận thứ 7, đội ấy hoàn toàn có thể thắng hoặc thua một đối thủ ngang tầm với xác suất thắng/thua như nhau. Hãy dự đoán đội ấy sẽ thắng, không phải vì cơ hội chiến thắng cao hơn (đã bảo là chỉ ngang nhau), mà vì đa số cho rằng đội ấy sẽ thua nên các công ty cá cược phải xếp đội ấy vào “kèo dưới”.

Suy cho cùng, tỷ lệ cá cược không phải là nhận định của công ty cá cược mà là suy nghĩ của đám đông. Nếu đa số dự đoán đội Anh – dựa trên cở sở là chuỗi thành tích vừa qua – yếu hơn đối thủ XYZ nào đó, thì công ty cá cược nhất thiết phải ra mức thưởng thấp hơn cho kết quả đội XYZ chiến thắng, đồng nghĩa XYZ là đội “kèo trên”, phải “chấp” nếu dự đoán kiểu châu Á. Về mặt chuyên môn thuần túy, đội nào mạnh hơn lại là chuyện khác.

Nguồn: http://nhacai.net/huong-dan-cach-choi-ca-do-bong-da-tren-mang/

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