Xác suất cá độ bóng đá của những trận đấu bất ngờ

cá cược thể thao

Nguyên tắc chung

Nguyên tắc chung của cá độ bóng đá là hễ số bàn thắng càng cao thì kết quả bất ngờ (đội yếu thắng) càng thấp. Trong một thời điểm bất kỳ, có 70% xác suất bàn thắng tiếp theo sẽ thuộc về đội mạnh, 30% bàn thắng tiếp theo thuộc về đội yếu. Ở đây, chúng ta bàn về mối liên quan giữa choi bai online số bàn thắng và xác suất xảy ra kết quả bất ngờ.

ca do bong da

Nếu trận đấu có 3 bàn thắng thì xác suất để đội yếu thắng 3-0 là 30% x 30% x 30% = 2,7%. Xác suất để đội mạnh thắng 2-0 là 70% x 70% = 49%. Xác suất hòa 1-1 là 100% – 9% – 49% = 42%. Xác suất để đội yếu thắng 2-1 là 30% x 30% x 60% = 5,4%. Với các trận có 2 hoặc 4 bàn, cách tính sẽ phức tạp hơn (nhưng nguyên tắc vẫn vậy) do các trận này còn có cửa hòa (1-1 hoặc 2-2). Xác suất để đội mạnh thắng 2-1 là 57,6%. Như vậy, có 8,1% khả năng đội yếu chiến thắng (2-1 hoặc 3-0) và 91,9% khả năng đội mạnh chiến thắng (2-1 hoặc 3-0) trong các trận đấu có đúng 3 bàn.

Xác suất chiến thắng của đội yếu giảm

Từ 1 đến 3 bàn, chúng ta dang ky happyluke thấy rằng xác suất chiến thắng của đội yếu giảm mạnh từ 30% xuống còn 8,1%. Xác suất đội mạnh chiến thắng tăng từ 70% lên đến 91,9%. Giải vô địch Đức Bundesliga và Hà Lan thường có tỷ lệ ghi bàn nhiều hơn hẳn so với giải vô địch Pháp và Italia. Do đặc điểm chuyên môn cũng như quan điểm bóng đá khác nhau nên số bàn thắng trung bình ở các nền bóng đá cũng khác nhau.

Ở các trận đấu có nhiều bàn thắng, cách tính xác suất vẫn theo nguyên tắc: 70% bàn thắng tiếp theo thuộc về đội mạnh. Xác suất để đội yếu thắng đội mạnh 2-0 là 30% x 30% = 9% (tức cả 2 bàn thắng đều do đội yếu ghi được). Xác suất để đội mạnh thắng 3-0 là 70% x 70% x 70% = 34,3%. Nói cách khác, trong các trận đấu chỉ có 1 bàn thì có 70% khả năng đội mạnh chiến thắng, 30% khả năng đội yếu chiến thắng. Xin nhắc lại, đây là chỉ nói trong trường hợp trận đấu có đúng 2 bàn, không phải nguyên tắc tính xác suất cho các tỷ số 1-1, 0-2, 2-0 ở một trận đấu bất kỳ.

Nguồn: https://nhacaionline.com/nha-cai-happyluke/

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